Alert: The Sea Level Is Rising, The Sea Level Is Rising!

May 11th, 2008

Sheesh! I just started this dang blog and already I have people trying to start a debate on global warming and sea level rising! Please friends, just calm down. Now, slowly step away from the edge.

I recently posted a little joke about buying a tiny one tree island. I didn’t expect to get the responses I received and I’m deleting pretty much all of them. This may upset some people but hey tough! It’s my blog! I’ve OK’d George’s post but it’ll be the last one about sea level rise since this is a blog and not a forum. I don’t really want to start a debate but I wanted to use George’s comment to make my point.

Let me start by saying this: It was just a joke people!!! Maybe my sense of humor is a little warped but it was just us giving a little poke to the people who think they can buy an island for a ridiculously low price. I get these requests all the time and the first thing one should ask himself is, “If an island is that cheap, why don’t Doug and KT buy it?”, the answer is WE WOULD! So believe me, they don’t exist. It was just a poor attempt at humor.

Jeez, imagine if I had made fun of the “buy an island and start a new pot smoker country” crowd!

Like I said, this may upset some people but I do have my own opinions on sea level rise and it’s based not only on my reading but also real observations of the sea and it’s effects on the islands. I have to admit up front that I’m not much of a believer in the doom and gloom global warming stuff, especially when they say it’s caused by humans, so feel free to disagree. I just don’t believe that man can produce enough green house gases to even come close to what one volcano can do, or the ocean itself on a daily basis. And don’t get me started on cow farts!! To me this is just one more fad that will go the way of the Ozone hole or the coming ice age argument. Just because it’s repeated a thousand times and governments create schemes to tax people based on it, doesn’t make it true.

Remember the story about the well meaning environmental activists in the Maldives that whacked down a centuries old tree sitting at sea level and right at the waters edge because it got in the way of their sea level rising argument? This is the kind of stuff that makes me a skeptic of all these environmental fears.

But even if I gave in to this for argument’s sake and say that even if global warming is raising the sea levels, it’s doing it very, very slowly over many, many years. So I’ll use George’s argument of 6 feet in 50 years as an example. This is roughly 1.5” per year of rise. Now apparently we’re starting this measurement next year because it sure hasn’t happened as yet. And next year when it hasn’t happened, I’m sure the doom and gloomers will issue a perfectly logical reason as to why their prediction hasn’t come true AND that it’s all our fault. But I digress…

The forecasters of doom and gloom love to report that the islands will soon be covered in water. We the consuming public, sit at home watching TV and absorb this entire predicted catastrophe without asking some basic questions. Seems to me the doom and gloomers are conveniently forgetting several very important variables.

The first and most obvious is the Human Element. They don’t bother mentioning that man just might do something to help himself, rather than standing there watching his island disappear. The natural maintenance of your beach and surroundings over the years will easily keep up with this.

Second, Islands are always changing just a little bit every day with the currents, storms, rainfall (or lack of), falling leaves, growing coral, the shifting of the earth’s crust. They don’t need global warming to have these issues, they happen all the time naturally, every second of every day of every year. It’s so interesting to look at an island at different times of year. Sand, coral, and vegetation is moved from side to side naturally with the currents. Islands grow, and then recede. Some have sand bars that appear at certain times of the year but disappear the rest of the year. Some are continuously growing, some are eroding. When any of you visit islands with us, I’ll happily show you brand new islands that appeared just this year. It’s fascinating and really shows you that the sea is constantly changing things.

Third, and maybe most important, is looking at it from a real world perspective. It’s easy to tell that the sea and land masses change all the time. The sea is constantly washing up sand on the beaches. As the level rises, it brings in more sand. It doesn’t take it away. For me, this is particularly evident during the month of October in Belize when the tides are naturally 8-10 inches higher during that month. Anything that’s light enough to be washed around in the waves (ie; sand, vegetation, bits of coral, seaweed, and yes, garbage!) finds its way on shore on the low lying islands. The higher the tide, the farther in the debris gets washed in. This is when new islands tend to appear and was the basis for my poor joke about the one tree island. During other months those new islands may tend to erode. But largely over the years, the added tide height in October gradually builds the land mass, rather than erode it. This is in addition to what the Mangrove roots naturally collect. So in my humble opinion, it’s safe to say that added sea level ADDS to island elevation while a sea level decrease will erode an island. Here’s a question to ask your self; why do archaeologists always have to DIG to find their treasures? Answer, because the land mass is always being added to naturally.

The fact is, there are islands in Belize AT sea level, with Mayan ruins on them. Think about it. What exactly does this mean? Does it mean that the sea level hasn’t risen in thousands of years? Or does it mean that the island grew in elevation with the sea level?

So if we take George’s figure of 1.5 inches per year and also take into consideration the tide naturally moves in and out every single day by 8 inches PLUS the high month or two out of the year that it varies naturally by an additional 8 inches. I believe that an island naturally adjusts to the height of the sea. I’m sorry but I still look at this from a real-world, man on the ground perspective. I’m not a scientist (one could probably tear up my rather simple observations) but simple logic has always served me well enough. An island is an island for a reason. I have no idea why, but the earth moved things in such a way that the island was created, and it continues this movement to this very day. Movies like “The Day After Tomorrow” are not realistic. A permanent wall of water will not wash in and wipe everything out. If I’m wrong, I’ll happily eat my words, but not till after I finish paddling back to shore!!!

On a side note, many people worry that hurricanes are a big threat to islands. And of course they are, but the vision conjured in their head is that the island itself will be washed away. This just isn’t a realistic fear. I suppose it’s statistically possible for an island somewhere to be wiped off the map but the chances are so remote that it’s unreasonable to even worry about it. Life and property ON the island is what should be worried about. Most people don’t realize that hurricanes and major tropical storms have a greater chance of growing an island than washing it away. Why is this? It’s because of storm surge (sea level rise under the storm system due to low atmospheric pressure). The higher sea level, plus the violent currents tend to pile sand and coral onto the islands. In some cases, HUGE piles. I can show this to you when you visit too (the result of Iris). When the storm passes, lots of islands have new sand or coral washed up on the island. Of course there can be massive erosion in other areas too, but my point is that the argument works both ways.
Finally, consider natural tectonic plate movement. A few countries are naturally sinking and those are the countries we hear about. Except they say the seal level is rising, not that the land mass is sinking. We never hear about the countries who’s elevations are growing at a rate of over a millimeter per year, but it’s happening everywhere and more often than countries that are sinking. I know of islands with documented proof that they are raising 2mm per year in elevation due to tectonic plate shifts.

All this long winded explanation to basically say that I agree with Stan’s comment and if global warming actually does raise the sea level, it’ll do it slowly and normal maintenance (that would be required anyway) will easily keep up with it. A smart thing to consider is once you own an island, to hire a caretaker. It’s one of the most sought after jobs in the country so you won’t have any problem finding a person to do it. Labor rates for that job are about $600-800 US per month. You can keep the caretaker busy in the long term doing beach maintenance where necessary.

Well that’s about it. Maybe I’m a little off base but I don’t think so. I hope everyone can forgive me for being so opinionated on the issue. But I wanted to give all you my honest and unvarnished thoughts on it. Here is the REAL offensive part: This Blog is a benevolent dictatorship and I intend to keep it a blog with comments, but without real debate since its not a global warming debate forum! So I won’t allow the comments instigating it. Sorry guys this is for fun, nothing else. I know, it’s cowardly of me.

Hey George, Thanks so much for visiting the site. and for the kind words. I hope I haven’t ticked you off by picking on you a little. Your comment was such a common one and something I talk about privately with clients all the time. We just disagree a little, thats all.

Sorry Edmundas, you can’t buy the one tree island!

Categories: Island Fun